Teneo AI: Strong preliminary figures, SaaS ARR growth shows rapid acceleration
Research Update
2025-01-15
09:23
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Fredrik Nilsson answered 2 questions.
Redeye strengthens its positive view of Teneo AI following preliminary Q4 figures showing a substantial increase in SaaS ARR growth. In addition to raising our forecasts and Base Case, the solid numbers also increase the likelihood of Teneo AI reaching our long-term Base Case assumptions or better.
Fredrik Nilsson
Key financials
| SEKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e |
| Total Revenue | 59.4 | 85.6 | 146.0 | 215.1 | 287.1 |
| Revenue Growth | 15.3% | 44.1% | 70.5% | 47.4% | 33.5% |
| EBITDA | -58.1 | -35.1 | 12.3 | 44.9 | 76.5 |
| EBIT | -72.3 | -54.9 | -3.5 | 28.8 | 59.1 |
| EBIT Margin | -119% | -65.8% | -2.4% | 13.4% | 20.6% |
| Net Income | -57.8 | -65.9 | -18.6 | 10.5 | 33.9 |
| EV/Sales | 4.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| EV/EBIT | -3.5 | -9.0 | -137 | 15.7 | 6.9 |
Yesterday evening, Teneo AI announced preliminary figures for Q4 2024, showing accelerating SaaS ARR growth and solid cost control. Teneo AI also announced the successful fulfilment of two long-term financial targets during the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching annualized API call volumes of 1bn and one month of positive cash flow from operations during 2024.
The q/q SaaS ARR growth was SEK20.8m, compared to SEK10.6m in Q3 and around SEK6.5m in Q1 and Q2. Thus, an impressive acceleration, fueled by a large amount of SaaS API calls, is almost in line with what is needed to reach the ambitious SEK200m ARR target for the end of 2025, which now seems within reach. However, our forecasts remain somewhat more conservative. Following the strong development in Q4, we raise our assumptions for 2025, as we now expect a higher absolute ARR growth. The solid momentum suggests additional customers are starting to scale the Teneo AI’s solutions, indicating SaaS ARR growth will remain at a high pace. According to management, the solid growth was mainly due to current customers scaling Teneo AI. However, there was some contribution from new customers as well. Also, the pipeline remains solid, and we get the impression that management is optimistic about the outlook for 2025. Our revised forecast is SEK183m in ARR at the end of 2025, up from SEK161m.
*2024 Q4e regards the preliminary figures.
Disclosures and disclaimers