Catella: Strong end to a tough year

Research Update

2025-02-14

07:30

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Martin Wahlström answered 3 questions.

Redeye provides a research update following the Q4 2024 report from Catella. Adjusting for one-off restructuring costs, Investment Management showed performance just slightly shy of estimates, and Corporate Finance delievered impressive cost control with a markedly higher EBIT than foreseen. In Principal Investments, Polaxis was divested with a slight profit, and we continue to argue that the Kaktus divestment will play a key part in closing the gap between our Base Case and the current share price. With a change of lead analyst and a reworked valuation approach, Redeye mostly maintains its fair value range.

Martin Wahlström

Rasmus Jacobsson

Contents

Review of Q4 2024

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Financial commentary

Total revenue was SEK1,045m, up 94% y/y but 5% when adjusting for the divestment of Polaxis. Both Investment Management and Corporate Finance were slightly below estimated revenue generation. Investment Management, at first glance, showed EBIT figures below our estimates, but this was partly driven by one-off restructuring costs. Excluding this, the segment ended the year at SEK51m in EBIT, against SEK22m last year (using a comparable adjustment) and close to our estimate of SEK58m. Corporate Finance showed impressive cost efficiency, with EBIT at SEK31m against our forecasted SEK13m. Overall, we view the quarter as a strong end to a tough year.

Divestment of Polaxis and Kaktus outlook

Polaxis was divested during Q4, contributing SEK457m in net sales and freeing up capital for new investments. We saw a few new PI investments in the quarter, including the Danish residential project Vega. Note that in our estimate table below, 2024 figures now include the Polaxis divestment under total revenue, whereas we continue to only show profit from divestmtents as net sales in our estimates to make it easier to see the underlying development. Divestments at low profits in relation to total value would otherwise distort sales figures. As for Kaktus, we reiterate our view of SEK300m in pre-tax profit, with a divestment now estimated in Q2 2025. Dialogues for divestment is stated to be ongoing and progress is according to plan.

Valuation mostly maintained

Following a change of lead analyst, Redeye has restructured its financial model and valuation approach, pivoting from a partly multiple-based valuation to a DCF. We mostly reiterate our fair value range, now standing at SEK28(25) to SEK69(70), with a Base Case of SEK56(56) per share. In this update, we provide a detailed walkthrough of this new approach, outlining some of our key assumptions. The Kaktus divestment remains an integral part in closing the gap between our Base Case and the current share price, with the stock trading at low single-digit EV/EBIT multiples following the divestment.

Key Financials
SEKm202320242025e2026e2027e
Total Revenue2,332.02,299.02,091.72,123.02,323.4
Revenue Growth-15.0%30.0%-6.5%1.5%9.5%
EBITDA217.0207.0524.1391.9449.3
EBIT145.0124.0449.4317.2374.5
EBIT Margin8.5%5.6%21.8%15.1%16.3%
EV/Sales2.61.91.00.90.7
EV/EBIT30.933.14.55.94.6

Review of Q4 2024

Disclosures and disclaimers

Contents

Review of Q4 2024

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