Group-level net sales was SEK1,484 (2,078), relative to our estimate of SEK1,830. However, the number is not comparable to last year, nor our estimate, due to Autodesk’s new transaction model (which our forecast did consider) and a reclassification of the license deals (which our forecast did not consider). The underlying organic growth was about 11%. Adjusted for the reclassification of license deals, sales was 3% higher than expected. EBITA was slightly higher than we anticipated due to somewhat stronger margins than estimated in all three divisions.

The market conditions aligned with the situation earlier in 2024 – with a weak Germany, a rather cautious public sector, and stable demand in most other relevant sectors. Despite the soft conditions in some areas, Addnode had its best year so far (although M&A helps). Management emphasizes its customers’ need for efficiency and digitalization as major underlying growth drivers, even in softer markets. Looking into 2025, Germany is expected to remain soft, while management sees some positive signs within the architect markets in Europe and the US, as the layoffs have started to decline.

We raise our Base Case to SEK 122 (112) following roughly unchanged forecasts and a changed WACC. Addnode’s valuation of 24x EBIT for 2025e is below the average and in line with the median SaaS business in our peer list. Its EBITDA-CAPEX multiple of 19x 2025e is more attractive. All in all, we believe it is a reasonable valuation of a high-quality VAR/SaaS business.