As expected, Xspray's Q4 report was undramatic in terms of both financials and newsflow. The company reported EBIT of SEK-81.9m and an end-of-quarter cash position of SEK208.2m. The report does not warrant any substantial changes to our financial projections, which assumes six-months review time and a launch of Dasynoc around the turn of the year.

Xspray is finalizing its updated NDA for Dasynoc following the January announcement that a tablet batch deviation has postponed the resubmission to March/April 2025. Despite the delay, the company reiterates that it has sufficient funding to sustain operations until an anticipated approval, regardless of whether the FDA review requires two or six months. In January, Xspray also reported additional XS003 data and reaffirmed its target for an H1 2025 NDA submission for Xspray's second candidate.

The market is likely factoring in a six-month FDA review and uncertainty around Xspray’s funding ahead of the anticipated launch. While these concerns are valid, 2025 presents key events leading up to the expected approval of Dasynoc, offering potential catalysts. The nearest include the possibility of a two-month resubmission timeline and the full XS003 data package, which would enable NDA submission. Following the year-end report, our base case remains at SEK79, with bull and bear scenarios at SEK250 and SEK25, respectively.