IRLAB Q4: Upcoming Pirepemat readout in focus
Research Update
2025-02-13
15:49
Redeye returns following IRLAB's Q4 report and recent news in the company. We note that 2025 will be an important year for the company - with an important readout in Pirepemat already now in Q1.
Fredrik Thor
As expected, the report contained no significant surprises. Total income amounted to SEK49.5m, which relates to IRL757, including a milestone payment from MSRD/Otsuka of USD 2.5m in relation to the first dosing of a patient in the phase I trial sponsored by the company. Cash amounted to SEK67m, of which around SEK17m are earmarked for IRL757.
There are a lot of activities in the company, from a clinical perspective, mainly related to IRL757 and Pirepemat. In January this year, it was announced the last patient had completed the full treatment period in the phase IIb study with Pirepemat, addressing falls related to Parkinson's disease. Top-line results are expected in Q1 and constitute a significant catalyst for the share. We also expect further progress with the phase I study with IRL757 and progress regarding the next step with Mesdopetam.
We make some changes to our WACC assumption and LoA for IRL757, which in total leads to a reiterated base case of SEK40 for now, but we want to highlight that there are a lot of moving parts in the near term, including the Pirepemat readout (likely within a couple of weeks) and a financing solution (either a licensing agreement or equity issue in some way). In other words, our base case will likely change (in either direction) relatively soon, depending on these factors.
Key Financials | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | 2026e |
Total Revenue | 61.3 | 5.7 | 114.1 | 322.1 | 78.3 |
Revenue Growth | -70.5% | -90.7% | 1906% | 182% | -75.7% |
EBITDA | -108.3 | -176.5 | -70.5 | 174.6 | -44.2 |
EBIT | -113.1 | -180.8 | -75.1 | 174.6 | -44.2 |
Net Income | -113.1 | -177.9 | -83.1 | 174.6 | -44.2 |
(The numbers in parenthesis refer to the corresponding quarter of last year)
Disclosures and disclaimers