Sales amounted to SEK6.7m (0.1), marking the highest chromatography sales in a single quarter to date, though coming in 44% below our estimates. The cost base of SEK-20.9m was in line with our estimate of SEK-20.7m, while EBIT of SEK-11.9m fell short of our projected SEK-7.5m on account of the lower sales. The company had SEK48.4m in cash on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter. While the report largely fell short of our estimates, we do not place significant emphasis on these deviations, as they are relatively small in absolute terms. The investment case is more dependent on continued production improvements and sustained order inflow from Chengdu Shengnuo Biopharm, along with new customers integrating Nanologica’s products into their workflows. Notably, the report and recent news flow have provided positive indications regarding the first two.

While our view of the case remains unchanged following the Q4 report, we believe a more cautious approach is warranted and have revised our estimates downward, primarily due to the challenges in forecasting the timeline from customer evaluations and initial product testing to concrete production orders. Although this process has taken longer than initially expected, we remain confident that these orders will eventually materialize. However, the exact timing remains uncertain, necessitating a more prudent stance. As a result, we have adjusted our estimates to reflect extended lead times in these discussions, lowering our 2025e–2026e sales projections by 39–23%.

As a consequence of the changes to our model our new base case comes in at SEK3.5 (4), with bull- and bear cases of SEK7 (8) and SEK1.5 (1.5), respectively. Based on our updated estimates and yesterday’s closing price, Nanologica trades at an EV/S multiple of 2.7x for 2025e and 1.4x for 2026e, which we consider attractive given the outlook.