Total sales matched our forecast of SEK256m and amounted to SEK258m (211), corresponding to 22% growth y/y. The organic growth was -7.1% y/y. While not all Nordic IT Consulting firms have reported their Q3 yet, we believe -7.1% will be close to the average. EBIT was SEK21.4m, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 8.3% (12.2). Our forecast was SEK22.0m and 8.6%. Thus, the outcome roughly matched our expectations. While management is not satisfied with the result below its 10% EBIT margin target, we believe the Q4 earnings are a clear step forward compared to the soft Q2-Q3.

We forecast a 10% EBITA margin for 2025, up from 8.4% in 2024 and 10.7% for 2026, below the company’s 12% target. While we believe 12% is well in reach for CombinedX – several of its subsidiaries are already performing better numbers – considering the market environment and the volatility seen in CombinedX’s margins lately, our estimates are somewhat more cautious. On the other hand, the divestment of Borlänge-based Aspire, M3CS joining Elvenite, and the remaining Aspire joining Ninetech should set CombinedX for improving margins relative to 2024, even in a market that might stay on the soft side.

We increased our Base Case to SEK58 (54) despite slightly reduced forecasts due to the Q4 figures showing CombinedX is likely to be back among the high-quality IT Consulting firms. While the share price reacted very positively on the Q4 report, trading at 5.5x EBITA 2025e (share price SEK36.3), we believe the risk/reward in CombinedX remains attractive.