The study of fostrox + Lenvima was closed in November. Remaining patients were transferred to compassionate use. Final data will be presented at EASL on 20 February. The following phase IIb study is now defined and will be called FOcuS-2. It will recruit 154 patients in two parts. The first part has three dose groups, fostrox 30 mg + Lenvima, fostrox 10 mg + Lenvima, and Lenvima with 20 patients in each group. The second part will recruit 47 patients in each group, one fostrox + Lenvima and one Lenvima only. The study is planned to start late in 2025 with final preparations ongoing, including defining and setting up sites together with the CRO that will conduct the phase IIb study and finalising CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls) for phase III. Eisai is also on time with preparing the supply of Lenvima, which Medivir obtains without payment thanks to the clinical collaboration agreement. Each part will take 12 months with the primary endpoint (ORR) readout after 6 months and 24 months for survival. Topline data should, therefore, be available in 2028.

In the conference call, data from the first prospective Lenvima monotherapy data were presented from a study with 50 patients. The median progression-free survival was 5.4 months while the overall survival was 8.6 months, which is roughly in line with other studies. Fostrox + Lenvima's time to progression of circa 11 months clearly appears better.

We now assume a deal in 2028 with total deal value of USD1.5bn and an upfront of USD150m. We add one year to fostrox' programme with a launch in 2029 (2028). We also assume more dilution. We increase the WACC to 16.5% (15%). This results in a higher technology/fundamental value but a lower value per share. The big question now is how Medivir will fund the phase IIb study - with a partner or alone. In any case, we think specialist investors will participate when raising capital. Once this is resolved, the market might realise how undervalued Medivir is.