CoinShares' report beat both RRe and consensus estimates. The CSCM segment outperformed by 80% thanks to unexpected liquidity and delta-neutral gains amid post-election crypto surges—we expect normalisation in 2025. GBP5m in fair value gains on its net long BTC position further boosted performance. The asset management segment also surpassed expectations with fees 9% above RRe, prompting a 4-7% 2025-2028e upward revision. We expect XBT to be less than 50% of AUM in 2025e.

Crypto prices surged following a pro-crypto shift after the US election, bolstered by key regulatory appointments and the enforcement of MiCA in Europe. We expect the evolving regulatory landscape to drive institutional interest. Institutaional interest either expand the asset class or increase crypto equities appeal. The former was seen when BTC ETFs were intoduced, resulting in surging prices and CoinShares's AUM growing as a consequence. Compared to peers like Coinbase, Robinhood and MicroStratey (EV/EBITDA 2026e 16x, 25x, and >1,000x, respectively), CoinShares stands out with healthy margins and a low valuation (EV/EBITDA 2026e 4x), positioning it attractively for US-based investors.

The share had rallied along crypto assets leading up to the report. Despite solid report, shares fell about 5% post-announcement. While we argue for a higher multiple due to the recurring revenue stream and investor-friendly policies—featuring a 20–40% payout ratio and historical buybacks— a re-rating seems unlikely. Although over-the-market buybacks post-AGM could offer support, we believe underlying crypto development will remain the key share driver. Our updated valuation set the Bear Case at SEK55(48), Base Case at SEK160(155), and Bull Case at SEK235(235).