Redeye states the Q3 report was strong across the board. The Company continues on its path of profitability with Gross profit-to-asset-ratio continuing to increase with higher revenue and gross margin. We adjust our estimates for Q4'22–Q4'23 and our fair value range.

Gasporox did 88% better than our forecast for net sales, making SEK6.5m for the quarter instead of SEK3.5m. The difference is due to the pandemic having less impact than expected and overall sales being higher than expected. EBIT was positive for the first quarter, outside the traditionally strong fourth quarter, reaching SEK0.2m versus our forecast of -SEK3.6m. The primary difference was the gross margin, which was much higher than expected at 83% versus our forecast of 70%. This alone saved SEK0.8m. Better OPEX than expected resulted in higher EBIT as well.

Gasporox

* Lack of recurring revenue model and limited geographic market expansion, potentially hindering predictable growth and scalability.
* Unable to consistently generate returns on invested capital exceeding the cost of capital, suggesting possible challenges in maintaining a competitive moat.
* Narrow revenue base with limited diversification, increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations and customer concentration risks.
* Dependence on key individuals for success, posing potential operational risks if these individuals were to leave the company.
* Uncertainty regarding the longevity of competitive advantages and pricing power, which could impact long-term profitability and market position.

* Strong potential for meaningful reinvestment opportunities and ability to scale without expensive reinvestment, indicating efficient growth capabilities.
* Benefits from secular tailwinds supporting growth, with core business unlikely to be disrupted, suggesting long-term stability and resilience.
* Easily identifiable sustainable competitive advantages, potentially providing a strong market position and value capture ability.
* Proactively promotes environmental sustainability and contributes to the greater good, aligning with growing investor focus on ethical practices.
* Demonstrates positive employee satisfaction and customer-supplier relationships, fostering long-term sustainability and stakeholder value creation.

* Operating margin (EBIT) below 20%, suggesting potential competitive pressures or cost management challenges
* Return on Equity (ROE) below 20% for the last five years, indicating suboptimal utilization of shareholder capital
* Inconsistent earnings growth, failing to maintain 10%+ growth over five years or match historical averages
* Likely need to raise capital in the next 12 months, potentially leading to shareholder dilution
* Weak dividend performance, lacking consistent growth or coverage by cash flows, which may concern income-focused investors

* Strong gross profit margin exceeding 40%, indicating profitable product mix and pricing power
* Consistently increasing operating margin (EBIT) over three consecutive years, suggesting improved cost management and operational efficiency
* Healthy debt management with Net Debt less than two times Operating Cash Flow and five times Free Cash Flow
* Efficient inventory and accounts receivable management, both below 20% of sales and their 5-year averages
* High Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow conversion rates above 80% over the past five years, indicating strong cash generation abilities

* Potential dilution of shareholder value due to increasing share count without corresponding EPS growth.
* Weak commitment to sustainability reporting, which may indicate gaps in ESG practices or disclosure.
* Lack of sustainability-related performance incentives in executive compensation plans.
* Management owns less than a significant stake in the business, potentially misaligning interests with shareholders.
* Unclear status of minority shareholder treatment, raising potential governance concerns.

* Strong founder mentality with a CEO who inspires long-term vision, challenges conventions, and possesses deep industry knowledge.
* Experienced management team with consistent delivery on promises and a history of value creation.
* Effective capital allocation, focusing on innovation and generating attractive returns on investments.
* Transparent and candid investor communication, emphasizing long-term business value and consistent messaging.
* Board leadership demonstrates strong governance with independent directors, gender diversity, and alignment with business strategy.

SEKm	2020	2021	2022e	2023e	2024e
Revenues	12.5	15.7	27.0	39.0	52.6
Revenue Growth	21.1%	26.4%	71.4%	44.4%	35.0%
EBITDA	-1.1	-2.7	3.7	13.1	15.2
EBIT	-4.4	-5.4	-0.15	10.1	9.8
EBIT Margin	-35.0%	-34.2%	-0.5%	26.0%	18.7%
Net Income	-4.4	-5.4	-0.50	9.4	9.0
EV/Revenue	7.6	5.6	2.3	1.4	0.9
EV/EBIT	-21.6	-16.3	-415	5.5	5.1

Close to EBIT break-even in 2022

Clear path to profitability

Revised estimates and updated fair value range

Summary of Q3’22