Xavi Solutions: Better market conditions than feared
Research Update
2023-02-10
08:58
Redeye provides a research update on the back of Xavi Solutions Q4 2022 report. The sales exceeded our expectations somewhat, while the result was, as expected, affected by goodwill write-offs that were communicated ahead of the report. Overall, we make slightly forecast adjustments while our fair value range is intact.
Jacob Svensson
Fredrik Nilsson
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The Q4 2022 sales amounted to SEK30.8m and remained flat y/y, which was 3% above our expectations of SEK29.8m. Due to the already communicated write-offs of goodwill (cSEK31m), the EBIT amounted to a negative of SEK30m, while the EBITA adjusted for this amounted to a negative of SEK0.7m, which was broadly in line with our expectations.
According to management, the optimization and streamlining need to continue to reach its recently updated financial targets for 2025 and increase profitability. Still, we appreciated seeing that the sales managed to hold up relatively well in Q4 despite management's earlier announcements of somewhat more challenging market sentiment ahead. However, we note that the growth must pick up in order to reach its financial targets for 2025 and to approach stable profitability.
We make slight forecast adjustments on the back of Xavi Solutions Q4 2022. We increase our 2023e and 2024e sales and OPEX forecast slightly, which have a minor effect on the margins. However, our DCF keeps our fair value range intact with a Base Case of SEK0.60 and Bear and Bull Cases of SEK0.20 and SEK1.25, respectively.
SEKm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e |
Revenues | 8.7 | 118.5 | 116.6 | 124.9 | 137.7 |
Revenue Growth | nm. | 1263% | -1.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% |
EBITDA | -1.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 5.5 |
EBIT | -4.3 | 0.36 | -29.9 | -0.31 | 1.2 |
EBIT Margin | -49.7% | 0.3% | -25.6% | -0.2% | 0.9% |
Net Income | -5.7 | -1.7 | -32.1 | -1.7 | -0.23 |
EV/Revenue | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
EV/EBIT | -3.4 | 69.2 | -0.6 | -108 | 28.6 |
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