Vertiseit: Strong Growth and Outlook
Research Update
2023-02-16
06:45
Redeye raises its Base Case and forecasts slightly following a solid Q4 report showing high organic ARR growth. Despite the exposure to consumers, management experiences a strong demand, highlighting the long-term strategic need for retailers to unify their offline and online offerings. We retain our positive view.
Fredrik Nilsson
Mark Siöstedt
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ARR, SaaS- and System revenue all beat our expectations. While the less important System sales beat our forecast by 29% following a large System deal, the important organic ARR growth was 24% q/q at an annualized rate. Thus, Vertiseit continues to show an organic ARR growth above its implied target (25%, including M&A). Despite the exposure to consumers, management experiences a strong demand, highlighting the long-term strategic need for retailers to unify their offline and online offerings. Looking at recent reports as well as the ARR during Covid-19, numbers support Vertiseit’s customers are investing for the long run.
The implementations of the new group-wide IT systems are now complete, resulting in several benefits. First, Vertiseit will start reporting SaaS metrics for the full group. Second, the organization can now focus fully on growth and its customers. Third, group-wide systems will likely improve the efficiency of the group.
We raise our Base Case to SEK46 (44) due to slight upward revisions of our forecasts. Vertiseit continues to show healthy organic ARR growth, the outlook for 2023 is solid, and the margin should continue to rise as the company grows and synergies are realized. We retain our positive view.
SEKm | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e |
Revenues | 127.6 | 314.7 | 364.9 | 387.2 | 412.0 |
Revenue Growth | 66.4% | 147% | 16.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% |
EBITDA | 13.8 | 35.4 | 67.4 | 88.8 | 107.7 |
EBIT | 4.7 | 13.6 | 41.6 | 59.5 | 76.5 |
EBIT Margin | 3.7% | 4.3% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 18.6% |
Net Income | 2.8 | 9.3 | 28.8 | 43.0 | 56.6 |
EV/Revenue | 5.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
EV/EBIT | 157 | 54.5 | 21.0 | 14.1 | 10.5 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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Investment thesis
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