Q4 2022 net sales amounted to SEK27.2m, corresponding to a 36% y/y growth that is mainly acquired growth stemming from the RedBridge-acquisition and was approximately 14% above our expectations. Despite actual OPEX (other external costs and personnel expenses) coming in approximately 9% above our expectations, the EBITDA amounted to SEK2.0m, clearly beating our expectations of SEK0.3m. Thus, we appreciate that the EBITDA, like Q3 2022, remains in positive territory. 

According to management, the recently communicated restructuring initiatives in the wake of the RedBridge acquisition continue to pay off while expecting it to continue in the next few quarters. We note this was seen in the EBITDA beat in the quarter, which we believe is positive for the future and Binero’s path to stable profitability. Moreover, management sees strong demand for its products with a strengthened customer pipeline, while the focus will continue to be on its growth strategy, with new sales to both existing and new customers in 2023.

We make minor forecast adjustments following Binero’s Q4 2022 report as we increase our sales forecast by c4% for 2023e and 2024e, which, despite a slightly increased OPEX forecast, leads to significant EBITDA improvements. All in all, this gives rise to a new Base Case of SEK4.9 (4.8) per share with new Bear and Bull Cases of SEK2.0 (1.9) and SEK7.6 (7.5), respectively. As such, Binero is currently trading at an EV/S of 1.2x based on our 2023e.