During 2022, Northbaze faced various challenges such as component shortages, logistics issues, higher inflation rates, and a weaker smartphone market. However, despite these challenges, it achieved sales of SEK48m in the fourth quarter, representing a y/y growth of 11% and a sequential sales increase of 16%. Although the sales figures resulted in a deviation of -6% from our projections, they are still solid given the challenging market conditions.

The total EBITDA for the quarter was -SEK8.7m, resulting in an EBITDA margin of -18% compared to 3% the previous year. This fell short of our projected SEK8m. The deviation was primarily due to one-time expenses related to the termination of supplier contracts for a large Russian order. Adjusting for these costs, the adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin were cSEK0.6m and 1%, respectively.

We derive our fair value range from a fundamental DCF framework for three scenarios: base case (most likely), bear case (pessimistic), and bull case (optimistic), using a WACC of 13% for all scenarios. While we have revised our estimates, they have not had a significant impact on our fair value range. As a result, we are leaving our fair value range unchanged at SEK0.6–1.9, with our base case at SEK1.1.