Alzecure: Q4 comment
Research Update
2023-02-27
12:45
Redeye return with a short update following the Q4 report. We reiterate our base case and will soon return with a research update.
Fredrik Thor
Key figures from the report:
(The numbers in parenthesis refer to the corresponding quarter of last year)
We conclude that the financial report came in as expected and that the news flow indicated continued progress with the company’s pipeline. Alzecure states in its report that it has cash into 2024, indicating a stable cash burn compared to 2022. We assume that the company will raise an additional SEK40m in late 2023/early 2024.
The company shared new data during the Alzheimer's conference "CTAD" about its Alzheimer’s drug ACD856, both through presentations and abstracts. Furthermore, the company also unveiled new data at the ISMND Conference. Additionally, the company made an announcement regarding a rights issue that was later oversubscribed, resulting in net proceeds of approximately SEK40m. After Q4, it was announced that Alzecure had chosen a candidate drug for its second project within the preventive Alzheimer’s platform Alzstatin, ACD680. The candidate drug will now be evaluated in the pre-clinical stage. Alzecure states that this builds on the company’s strategy to develop several candidates in tandem, in order to choose the optimal candidate for clinical development. ACD680, for example, has a more attractive patent life. We expect further progress with Alzstatin this year and will likely dig deeper into the platform once it is getting closer to the clinic. Finally, the company announced last-patient-in in its phase II study with pain drug candidate ACD440, well in line with our expectations. We expect results this summer.
We conclude that the company has an exciting year ahead, perhaps most notably with the phase II readout within pain this summer. We also note that Alzecure reiterates its stance that it hopes to out license one of its candidates by 2023 -an impressive goal, we argue. We do some model housekeeping but reiterate our base case following the report. We will return with a more extensive "case reminder" shortly, where we also will may adjust our valuation further.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e |
Revenues | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.3 |
EBIT | -56.4 | -65.7 | -10.7 |
Disclosures and disclaimers