Heliospectra Q4 2022: Positive outlook and permanent CEO appointed
Research Update
2023-03-02
07:54
Redeye provides an update following Heliospectra’s amended Q4'22 report, in which order intake was significantly increased from SEK7.7m to SEK14.3m. We further view the appointment of Bonny Heeren as permanent CEO positively, as he has been the driving force behind the cost-cut program and the transformation of Heliospectra in 2022. Heliospectra enters 2023 with a lighter cost base, a new product range, and the ambition to reach break even by the end of 2023. We have made some minor adjustments to our estimates, lowering expectations for H1’23 but increasing our mid-term expectations. However, our valuation remains intact with a base case fair value at SEK1.7 per share.
Jessica Grunewald
Henrik Alveskog
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Net sales of SEK10.0m, -12%% y/y, were higher than expected. However, the gross margin of 14% is lower than we projected. We believe Heliospectra sold a significant portion of its older products at a discount, resulting in higher net sales than anticipated and a lower gross margin. The order intake of SEK 14.3m, up 240% year on year, was significantly higher than we expected, supporting the likelihood of 2023 being a turning point for Heliospectra.
Bonny Heeren was appointed interim CEO at the beginning of 2022 and has now been appointed permanent CEO. The news that Bonny Heeren can now carry out the strategy and the transition from 2022 under his direction is encouraging. The CEO letter mentions the ambition to break even by the end of 2023.
We have made minor changes to our estimates, not resulting in any changes in our fair value range. We have mainly lowered our expectations for H1’23, primarily due to a weaker economy in the European AgHort market and seasonal effects. Our base case stands at SEK1.7 (Bull: SEK5; Bear; SEK0.5)
| SEKm | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e |
| Total Revenue | 35.2 | 25.7 | 51.6 | 98.0 |
| Revenue Growth | -8.9% | -26.9% | 101% | 90.0% |
| EBITDA | -39.1 | -32.0 | -17.7 | -4.8 |
| EBIT | -60.2 | -36.0 | -22.1 | -9.9 |
| EBIT Margin | -171% | -140% | -42.8% | -10.1% |
| Net Income | -60.2 | -36.1 | -22.1 | -9.9 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| EV/EBIT | -1.4 | -3.2 | -6.6 | -16.1 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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