Enviro: Sets the structure for growth

Research Update

2023-04-12

07:00

Redeye updates its estimates following the ground-breaking news of the establishment of a Joint Venture (JV) with Antin and Michelin, creating a framework for the roll-out of recycling plants capable of handling up to 1m tons of end-of-life tyres pa by 2030. The JV increases our confidence in the investment case of Enviro, and several aspects are now significantly de-risked in our view.

Mattias Ehrenborg

Henrik Alveskog

Contents

Follow-up to our research note published the morning after the JV announcement

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The JV announcement came as a positive surprise to us

We argue that the establishment of the JV with Antin and Michelin verifies Enviro’s investment case and provides an attractive framework for reaching up to 1m tons in ELT capacity by 2030, as we argue Enviro’s coming equity investments should be greatly reduced relative to what we expected before. Furthermore, the JV aligns all stakeholders' interests and incentivizes them to succeed.

Financial risk should be greatly reduced, but we do expect a directed share issue of SEK300m

We find it very positive that Antin will designate its own management team in the JV and that Enviro will be reimbursed for all its previous work and future works regarding the Uddevalla plant and other plants included in the JV. This further reduces the financial risk in Enviro. However, we believe a directed share issue of up to SEK300m will take place in the coming quarters to finance the first plant (Uddevalla) and to receive 30% ownership in the JV.

Increased estimates and valuation

We have reviewed our estimates following the JV announcement, primarily with regards to prices per ton, the roll-out of plant capacity, and awaiting capital requirements, where we expect a directed share issue of up to SEK300m to take place in the coming quarters. Our assumptions for this expected share issue include the issuance of 150m shares, at the price of SEK2.0 per share (19% dilution). All in all, this results in an increased fair value range of SEK2.1 (1.1) – SEK11.0 (9.6) per share, with a base case of SEK6.1 (4.1) per share.

Key financials

SEKm2020202120222023e2024e
Revenues1.98.67.759.452.7
Revenue Growth59.6%353%-10.7%675%-11.3%
EBITDA-37.0-43.5-69.8-24.3-33.7
EBIT-49.8-56.9-83.8-38.3-47.8
EBIT Margin-2629%-663%-1094%-64.6%-90.6%
Net Income-50.0-57.0-83.6-39.7-49.2
EV/Revenue70512317618.424.3
EV/EBIT-26.8-18.6-16.1-28.6-26.8

Follow-up to our research note published the morning after the JV announcement

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Contents

Follow-up to our research note published the morning after the JV announcement

Download article