A major result for nadunolimab was the results presented at the AARC meeting in 2023. The subgroup of patients with high levels of IL1RAP demonstrated superior survival to those with low levels. In the wake of this, Cantargia has decided to skip the phase II/III study Precision Promise and proceed with a controlled phase IIb study with nadunolimab in pancreatic cancer in combination with gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel. The study will enrol 150-200 patients in three groups, one with placebo and two with different doses of nadunolimab, likely 1 amd 2.5 mg/kg. Recruitment should begin early in 2024 and results be available in 2025. This will likely lead to a slightly longer and more expensive development, but it will make it easier to out-license the asset.

The non-small cell lung cancer setting is very competitive. Cantargia finished the expansion cohort in CANFOUR early after enrolling 10 instead of 40 patients. Cantargia is analysing biomarkers in 2023 before deciding the next step; the plan was previously to start a phase IIb study in 2023, but the funding is also lacking. New results will be presented at ASCO in early June. Enrolment is continuing in the phase II triple-negative breast cancer study – an interim analysis is planned towards the end of the year. CAN10’s phase I trial is set to start by mid-year. It will be comparatively large (n=100) and generate a lot of data.

Due to the longer-than-expected development in breast and pancreatic cancer, we adjust our forecasts and expect a licensing deal in 2025 instead of 2024, which lowers our Base Case by SEK5. Furthermore, we assume around SEK225m will be raised before an exit, which impacts our negatively Base Case by a further SEK 5due do dilution. Our new Base Case is thus SEK19 (SEK29).