Lipigon Q1 2023: Preparing for Phase II

Research Update

2023-05-26

07:00

Redeye comments on Lipigon’s first-quarter report. After the end of Q1, all patients in the phase I study of Lipisense have been treated without any serious adverse events. The data is being analysed at the same time as a phase IIa study is being planned towards the end of the year.

Richard Ramanius

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Lipisense

In May, the last patient was treated in the phase I study of Lipisense. We are now awaiting an analysis of the results. At the same time, planning for the phase II study is ongoing. 25 patients with very high blood levels of triglycerides will be recruited; it should thus be possible to give a clear answer as to Lipisense’s triglyceride-lowering potential in this group. The quantity of drug material produced for the phase I trial is enough to supply the phase II trial as well. The two largest centres in Sweden for the treatment of lipid-related diseases will be involved in the trial, which means recruitment should be quick. The first patient is expected by Q4 2023. Topline results are expected by Q2 2024.

Rights Issue

In April, the rights issue was concluded. It was subscribed to 83% when including underwriting commitments, bringing in around SEK26m after costs and fees. This will finance the phase II study which is set to conclude by mid-2024. The warrants TO2 and TO3 might finance the company further.

We lower our Base Case

We have made several changes to our Base Case, including increasing the WACC to 16.5% (15.5%), reducing peak sales from USD770m to USD610m, adding a phase IIb part before a licensing deal in 2026 (2025) and assuming a one year later launch date in 2029 (2028). This results in a fully diluted Base Case of SEK2.0.

Key financials

SEKm2020202120222023e2024e
Total Revenue4.33.20.390.030.03
Revenue Growth146%-25.7%-87.9%-93.5%10.0%
EBITDA-7.7-41.8-37.7-27.0-27.0
EBIT-8.7-41.9-37.7-27.0-27.0
EBIT Margin-204%-1317%-9756%-108167%-98241%
Net Income-9.0-41.8-37.6-27.0-27.0
EV/Revenue-5.611.23421,106
EV/EBIT--0.4-0.1-0.3-1.1

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