Medivir reported the inclusion of the 15^th patient in the Lenvima arm in mid-August. Stable disease was reported in seven out of the first ten patients after three months with the longest being 12 months and ongoing. These are promising data, at a minimum in line with other studies in the second line with progression-free-survival (PFS) figures of 3-5 months, while response rates were 4%-18% in these studies. In the conference call, it emerged that fostrox had at least one response (according to local assessment). We thus believe Fostrox has the potential to beat the benchmark in future follow-ups.

IGM Biosciences is studying a fifth cohort in the phase I part of the study of IGM-8444; progression into the phase II part would lead to a milestone payment. Tango Therapeutics and INFEX therapeutics will shortly initiate phase I trials with candidates in-licensed from Medivir.

As the cash position is expected to last into the beginning of Q2 next year, we believe the company may need bridge financing by Q1 at the latest. We therefore model in dilution of SEK35m, which could be a directed share issue. We believe significant progress is being made in the liver cancer study, but we would like to see some more data before raising the likelihood of approval of fostrox, which would lead to an increase of our base case. Our new diluted base case is SEK13 (SEK14).