CombinedX: Solid Momentum Continued

Research Update

2023-08-21

06:45

Redeye reinforces its positive view of CombinedX following a strong Q2 report. The organic growth was 6.6%, and the EBIT margin was 10.1% despite the tough calendar. Although the company experiences softness in some sectors, CombinedX has compensated by increasing sales to strong sectors, such as industrials.

Fredrik Nilsson

Jacob Svensson

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Review of Q2 2023

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No Signs of the Soft Guidance

Sales was slightly lower than our forecast of SEK196m and amounted to SEK192m (161), following a somewhat lower number of employees than expected. EBIT was SEK19.4 (12.1), beating our forecast of SEK14.3. Following CombinedX’s soft guidance for Q2 in the Q1 report, we expected a rather soft Q2. Achieving a 10.1% EBIT margin in this Q2 with only 59 working days is strong, and the absolute EBIT beat our forecast by 36%. 6.6% organic sales growth and 10.1% EBIT margin stand out as strong relative to peers in the current market conditions. Both sales-cogs and especially the contribution per employee and working day, beat our forecasts, suggesting solid utilization rates during the quarter.

Mixed Market Signals

While management sees lower demand from some sectors, including consumer discretionary, housing, construction, and the public sector, CombinedX has managed to compensate by increasing sales from stronger sectors such as industrial, food & beverage, and security. Also, management believes CombinedX's focus on specialist teams rather than general consulting is advantageous, especially in challenging economic conditions. Although CombinedX has become more selective when recruiting, we expect low positive organic growth in H2 2023.

Base Case Unchanged at SEK60 – Positive View Retained

We leave our Base Case at SEK60 (60), constituting a significant upside relative to the current share price, despite increasing our EBIT forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 1-6%. While CombinedX had a rough start as a listed company, we believe it is time to reevaluate the company that outperformed most peers during Q2.

Key financials

SEKm20222023e2024e2025e2026e
Revenues650.5762.4796.9834.0868.4
Revenue Growth16.1%17.2%4.5%4.7%4.1%
EBITDA80.9115.3116.9125.0131.1
EBIT52.681.085.594.2100.7
EBIT Margin8.1%10.6%10.7%11.3%11.6%
Net Income35.263.767.374.279.4
EV/Revenue0.60.60.50.50.4
EV/EBIT7.95.95.14.23.4

Review of Q2 2023

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Contents

Review of Q2 2023

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