BioInvent Q2 2023: Progress on all Fronts
Research Update
2023-08-31
07:10
Since our last update, new readouts have been published with BI-1808 and BI-1206 in solid tumours. We review these results and the near-term outlook of the project portfolio. In particular, we expect news about the subcutaneous version of BI-1206 soon, which will be key to its future development.
Richard Ramanius
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The monotherapy part of BI-1808’s phase I study has been successfully concluded. Doses of up to 1000mg, a very high dose, have been administered without issues. Disease stabilisation was observed in six out of 22 evaluable patients (27%). This motivates us to increase the likelihood of approval of BI-1808 in T-cell lymphoma (CTCL).
BioInvent’s thesis is that the addition of BI-1206 could restore or enable checkpoint inhibitor efficacy. An update with six additional patients (eleven had been dosed by November 2021) was published in June. There were two objective responses across all 17 patients and one pseudo-progression. One stable disease and one response lasted more than 80 weeks. These are encouraging results considering the low dose of 1mg/kg for most patients, and that patients have received several lines of treatment, though it is difficult to separate the effect of BI-1206 from pembrolizumab alone at this stage.
We make changes across most indications, leading to higher valuations of some projects and lower in others, in particular for the oncolytic virus BT-001 (see the valuation discussion below), leading to the same base case as before (SEK80). The share is now trading below cash, which we believe is irrational considering the high quality the share represents in its class, especially since the cash will last through 2025.
SEKm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e |
Total Revenue | 147.4 | 19.4 | 326.2 | 59.3 | 54.0 |
Revenue Growth | 57.2% | -86.8% | 1583% | -81.8% | -9.0% |
EBITDA | -75.5 | -278.4 | -50.9 | -355.7 | -356.0 |
EBIT | -89.5 | -278.2 | -50.9 | -355.7 | -356.0 |
EBIT Margin | -60.7% | -1435% | -15.6% | -599% | -659% |
Net Income | -90.3 | -278.4 | -42.5 | -340.1 | -356.0 |
EV/Revenue | 13.3 | 69.0 | 1.5 | 11.7 | 19.5 |
EV/EBIT | -21.8 | -4.8 | -9.6 | -2.0 | -3.0 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Investment thesis
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