ChromoGenics: Robust order intake signals potential sales growth next year

Research Update

2023-12-01

07:45

Redeye provides an update on ChromoGenics following the company's Q3 2023 results. New cooperations with strong order intake signals a potential turnaround. We estimate sales to double next year.

FR

RJ

Fredrik Reuterhäll

Rasmus Jacobsson

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Review of Q3 2023

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New important cooperations

ChromoGenic signed a letter of intent regarding the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of ConverLight Dynamic with Smartglass International of Ireland. This cooperation could be essential for driving sales for ChromoGenics as it has sales channels in several European markets and North America. Moreover, ConverLight Dynamic (dynamic chromogenic foil layer) produces a higher gross margin than delivering a finished glass-mounted product, so higher foil production comes with higher margins.

Strong order intake

During Q3, ChromoGenics received an order intake of SEK8.3m. We anticipate the possibility of obtaining further orders for one of the specific projects in the future. Additionally, we expect a steady inflow of smaller orders from schools and hospitals to continue, improving growth further.

Adjusted valuation range

Following the Q3'23 report, we adjusted sales in Q4-23 downward because earlier estimates were too optimistic and orders recently received will be delivered next year. Using a higher risk-free rate of 3% pushes the WACC up to 15%, resulting in a lower valuation. New Base Case is SEK 7 (SEK9). We also adjusted our Bear and Bull Case assumptions due to the market uncertainty. Our new valuation range is SEK4.2 (5.1) to SEK25 (44).

Key financials

SEKm20222023e2024e2025e2026e
Revenues18.315.834.854.970.3
Revenue Growth-26.0%-13.5%120%58.0%28.0%
EBITDA-52.6-42.6-34.9-16.5-7.5
EBIT-55.9-45.3-38.9-21.3-11.5
EBIT Margin-306%-287%-112%-38.8%-16.3%
Net Income-57.0-48.9-34.9-21.74.6
EV/Revenue7.06.03.72.72.1
EV/EBIT-2.3-2.1-3.3-7.0-12.8

Review of Q3 2023

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Contents

Review of Q3 2023

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