Wyld Networks: Embarking on the Delivery Phase
Research Update
2023-12-01
07:03
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Jessica Grunewald answered 4 questions.
Redeye has updated our estimates and fair value range in light of Wyld Networks’ Q3 2023 report, which aligned with our expectations and contained no major surprises. Shipment of Wylds satellite IoT products has commenced, and the inflow of new launch partners remains high. The adjustments to our fair value range reflect the impact of rising interest rates and estimate revisions, leading to a new Base case of SEK14 (SEK15) per share.
Jessica Grunewald
Henrik Alveskog
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Q3 Review
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Net sales of SEK0.0m (SEK0.0m) came as no surprise as Wyld commenced delivering modules and terminals from its order book in October. I.e., we should start to see a ramp-up in sales in Q4’23, although we expect the initial volumes to be reasonably low. Overall, we see a Q3’23 report from Wyld without any significant surprises and where most of the business activities already had been announced.
During the quarter, Wyld carried out a directed issue of shares and units, securing SEK15m in funding and targeting two new investors and one existing. Wyld also decided to carry out a free-of-charge rights issue of units consisting of series TO4 and TO5 warrants to existing shareholders. Furthermore, Wyld formalised a loan agreement amounting to SEK15m with the two new investors from the directed share issuance, Buntel and Exelity. We forecast a cash injection of cSEK32 (estimated share price SEK12 x 70%) from the TO4 and a cash injection of cSEK37 (estimated share price SEK14 x 70%) from the TO5. Nevertheless, we estimate it is sufficient to take Wyld to break even with the current burn rate and that sales will pick up in Q4’23, yet initially in small figures. In the CEO’s letter, Alastair Williamson underscores the absence of any plans to raise additional capital. The existing cash reserves, coupled with the upcoming warrants, are deemed sufficient to propel Wyld forward.
Following the Q3’23 report, our financial forecast has undergone minor adjustments, where we have trimmed the topline for ‘23e-24e by 74% and 27%, respectively. Reflecting our estimate revisions and a general update of the risk-free rate, we adjust our fair value range to SEK5-27, with a Base case of SEK14(SEK15) per share. Quarterly upcoming reports and order advancements are the primary catalysts in the near term. Conversely, we recognise that the main risk in the case lies in potential delays in fulfilling customer orders.
SEKm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e |
Revenues | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 51.7 |
Revenue Growth | nm. | nm. | nm. | 256% | 1201% |
EBITDA | -12.6 | -28.8 | -37.6 | -41.0 | -23.0 |
EBIT | -12.8 | -29.1 | -37.9 | -41.4 | -23.5 |
EBIT Margin | nm. | nm. | -3399% | -1041% | -45.4% |
Net Income | -13.5 | -29.4 | -39.1 | -42.3 | -23.5 |
EV/Revenue | - | nm. | 146 | 33.4 | 3.1 |
EV/EBIT | - | -5.7 | -4.3 | -3.2 | -6.8 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Q3 Review
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