CombinedX: Positive Market Outlook

Research Update

2023-10-30

06:45

Redeye retains its positive view of CombinedX following the Q3 report. While EBIT came short of our expectations, largely due to higher Other external costs, the per-employee and working day data and the market outlook were positive. CombinedX grew by 8% organically, outgrowing most peers in the softening market.

Fredrik Nilsson

Anton Hoof

Solid Improvement y/y in EBIT – But Below Our Expectations

Total sales largely matched our forecast of SEK155m and amounted to SEK154m (128), corresponding to 20% growth y/y. The organic growth y/y was solid at 7.7%, especially considering Q3 this year had one working day less than Q3 2022 and the current market environment. EBIT was SEK9.7m, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 6.3% (2.8). Our forecast was SEK13.0m and 8.4%, and the lower outcome was due to somewhat lower sales and SEK2m in higher OPEX. However, the per-employee and working day data continued to be strong, which, combined with the solid market outlook, suggests a solid Q4 – s seasonally stronger quarter for IT consultants.

High Net Recruitment Implies Positive Outlook

The situation is seen in Q2, with lower demand from some sectors, including consumer discretionary, housing, and construction, while most sectors see normal markets remain. However, while management retains its market view from Q2, considering the high net intake of employees, we believe management now has a higher conviction in its rather optimistic market outlook.

New Base Case SEK57 (60)

We lowered our Base Case to SEK57 (60) because we increased our risk-free rate from 2.5% to 3%, resulting in a higher WACC. For 2023, we cut our EBIT forecast by 6% while keeping sales unchanged. The reduction is largely due to the lower outcome in Q3 than expected. For 2024, we raise sales and EBIT by 1-2% following the higher net recruitment than expected.

Key financials

SEKm20222023e2024e2025e2026e
Revenues650.5765.4816.3854.1889.1
Revenue Growth16.1%17.7%6.7%4.6%4.1%
EBITDA80.9112.8119.6127.0132.2
EBIT52.676.286.499.2102.4
EBIT Margin8.1%10.0%10.6%11.6%11.5%
Net Income35.266.768.278.480.9
EV/Revenue0.60.60.50.50.4
EV/EBIT7.96.55.24.03.4

Disclosures and disclaimers

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