Redeye lowered its forecasts and Base Case following Hexatronic’s downgrade of its short-term guidance. The market environment, particularly for duct in the US and FTTH in Germany, weakened further during November. While we believe the long-term case still has substantial potential, low visibility and uncertainty in our forecasts motivate a higher risk premium.

Yesterday, Hexatronic downgraded its short-term guidance and initiated a cost-savings program (saving SEK90m annually, with full effect from Q2 2024). Hexatronic now expects an EBITA margin of 12-14% for H2 2023, compared to the 15-17% stated in conjunction with the Q3 report on 27 September. Also, it expects weaker organic sales growth in Q4 compared to Q3, which had an organic growth of -13%. The downgrade is mainly due to weaker demand in the US duct business and FTTH in Germany. Thus, the factors that caused the soft Q3 report have worsened further. In addition to the lower demand in general, some customers are optimizing their inventories, and there are also rough indications of some customers postponing projects to await the BEAD funds.

Lagercrantz Group

Fortnox

Systemair

Addnode Group

PowerCell Sweden

Invisio

Enea

Hexatronic Group

* Low share of recurring revenue and capital-intensive nature of manufacturing business, requiring significant reinvestment for growth.
* Relatively fragmented market with commodity-like products, limiting sustainable competitive advantages and long-term pricing power.
* Cyclical dependency on FTTH investments, which can lead to volatility in demand and financial performance.
* Inconsistent historical returns on invested capital compared to cost of capital, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining long-term profitability.
* Limited ability to increase prices above inflation without customer churn, indicating potential vulnerability to market pressures and competition.

* Strong growth potential in strategic markets (US, UK, Germany) and new areas like Harsh environment and Data centre, with successful geographic expansion.
* Benefits from secular tailwinds including increased demand for high-speed internet, AI, and focus on defence and security.
* Diversified revenue base across geographies, customers, and products, reducing risk and enhancing stability.
* Proactively promoting environmental sustainability through product innovation and working closely with customers to innovate and provide value.
* High employee satisfaction and positive relationships with customers and suppliers, indicating strong operational stability and stakeholder management.

* Operating margin (EBIT) below 20% and not consistently increasing, potentially indicating cost control issues or competitive pressures.
* Return on Equity (ROE) below 20% for the last five years, suggesting less efficient use of shareholder capital.
* Lack of stable earnings growth over the last 10 years, indicating potential volatility in the business model.
* Debt to Equity ratio above 40%, signaling higher financial leverage and potential risk during economic downturns.
* Operating Cash Flow conversion below 80% over the past five years, potentially indicating discrepancies between reported earnings and actual cash generation.

* Strong gross profit margin exceeding 40%, indicating pricing power and potential for accelerated profits with sales growth.
* Return on Assets outperforming industry average over the past five years, suggesting superior asset utilization and profit generation.
* Consistent above-average revenue growth over the last five years, signaling market share gains and competitive strength.
* Robust short-term liquidity with current assets 1.5 times greater than current liabilities, demonstrating strong financial health.
* Efficient inventory and accounts receivable management, with both ratios below 20% and their respective 5-year averages.

* Uncertainty surrounding the incoming CEO's capabilities and background, as the company transitions from the successful tenure of the outgoing CEO.
* Less than 50% of board members have substantial holdings, potentially reducing their alignment with shareholder interests.
* Absence of a controlling owner with a long-term commitment (no group holding more than 20% of votes), which can sometimes lead to less stable long-term strategic direction.

* Strong leadership with a clear long-term vision and commitment to innovation, demonstrated by the outgoing CEO's success in challenging conventional practices and creating value.
* Lean, decentralized organization promoting accountability and self-direction, with consistent delivery on promises and well-defined strategic plans focused on growth markets.
* Effective capital allocation, including opportunistic stock actions and investments generating attractive returns, particularly in geographical expansion and acquisitions.
* Transparent and timely investor communication, focusing on long-term business value and consistently presenting the same story and key metrics over time.
* Significant insider ownership (about 13%) and management stake (about 6%), indicating strong alignment with shareholder interests.

SEKm	2022	2023e	2024e	2025e	2026e
Revenues	6,574.0	8,048.0	7,447.6	8,282.8	9,230.4
Revenue Growth	88.3%	22.4%	-7.5%	11.2%	11.4%
EBITDA	1,235.9	1,444.4	1,054.4	1,322.4	1,603.0
EBIT	1,027.6	1,115.6	687.3	956.7	1,253.9
EBIT Margin	15.6%	13.9%	9.2%	11.5%	13.6%
Net Income	793.0	729.7	420.4	630.5	862.4
EV/Revenue	4.6	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.4
EV/EBIT	29.3	5.3	7.7	4.9	3.2

Key financials

Demand Worsening During November