Lagercrantz: EPS growth to drive the stock

Research Update

2024-02-07

07:00

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Niklas Sävås answered 4 questions.

Redeye thinks that Lagercrantz yet again showed resiliency with strong margins and cash flow despite a drop in organic sales. We believe the company will continue to deliver strong growth from acquisitions in the coming quarters while organic growth will likely be soft. With the positive share price development in the last months we think there is limited room for multiple appreciation and that EPS growth will drive the stock price onwards.

Niklas Sävås

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Solid margins and cash flow

Lagercrantz again reported solid figures with sales and EBITA slightly below our estimates. The EBITA margin was in-line with our estimates, sequentially down but stronger on a year to year comparison. The cash flow was strong as usual in the third quarter and we believe it is likely to continue to be strong in the quarters ahead as is normal for the company when organic growth slows.

Acquisition-driven growth

Lagercrantz made four acquisitions during December of DP Seals, Material Handling Modules Europe, Suomen Diesel Voima and Nordic Road Safety. While DP Seals, MHM and Suomen Diesel Voima are typical Lagercrantz acquisitions in size and profile, we view Nordic Road Safety as slightly different as its larger and founded only seven years ago.

Base case intact

We reiterate our Base Case at SEK140 per share following the report. Lagercrantz continue to show solid EPS growth, and while we expect the organic growth rate to continue to be muted, we believe growth from acquisitions will continue to support solid growth ahead. With the positive share price development in the last months we think there is limited room for multiple appreciation ahead and that EPS growth will drive the stock price onwards.

Key financials

SEKm2020202120222023e2024e
Total Revenue4,091.05,482.07,246.08,175.99,446.5
Revenue Growth-2.1%34.0%32.2%12.8%15.5%
EBITDA774.01,094.01,452.01,701.51,962.3
EBIT530.0781.01,063.01,253.51,468.0
EBIT Margin13.0%14.2%14.7%15.3%15.5%
Net Income388.0572.0759.0872.51,019.0
EV/Sales4.24.34.03.63.1
EV/EBIT32.330.027.423.620.2

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