Invisio: Maintains strong growth trajectory
Research Update
2024-02-15
07:06
Redeye updates on Invisio following the company’s Q4-results which were stronger than expected with both topline and profit beating our forecasts. The company’s outlook remains positive as well and we slightly raise our estimates and valuation range.
Hjalmar Ahlberg
John Westborg
Invisio’s Q4-results came in above our expectations with both topline and EBITDA clearly beating our forecasts. Gross margin was somewhat lower than expected owing to a higher mix of deliveries to system integrators. Opex was in line with expectations adjusting for a small impairment related to a development project which changed strategic direction.
Looking into 2024, Invisio comments that the market activity remains high while additional upside from increased budgets could impact positively later in 2024 and beyond. Invisio also adds that it sees upside potential from the Intercom system where customers are evaluating the product, which should lead to more orders for the Intercom during 2024.
On the back of the strong Q4-results coupled with a positive outlook for 2024, we have slightly raised our forecasts for 2024-25E with EBITDA estimates up c2%. We have also raised out valuation range where our new base case stands at SEK250 (SEK240). Our base case implies an EV/EBITDA of 31x on 2024E and 24x on 2025E forecasts, while the five-year average has been 30x NTM EV/EBITDA (range of 20-50x).
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 775.4 | 1,238.5 | 1,394.2 | 1,603.3 | 1,843.8 |
Revenue Growth | 30.8% | 59.7% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
EBITDA | 112.7 | 301.4 | 360.6 | 462.2 | 574.4 |
EBIT | 65.1 | 242.8 | 298.6 | 398.0 | 507.9 |
EBIT Margin | 8.4% | 19.6% | 21.4% | 24.8% | 27.5% |
Net Income | 44.3 | 178.3 | 223.9 | 298.5 | 380.9 |
EV/Sales | 10.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
EV/EBITDA | 71.4 | 28.7 | 25.0 | 19.3 | 15.2 |
EV/EBIT | 124 | 35.7 | 30.2 | 22.4 | 17.2 |
Invisio reported revenue of SEK346m and EBITDA of SEK85m for Q4 2023, which was above our forecasts of SEK309m and SEK73m respectively. The gross margin of 57.4% was somewhat below our estimate of 61.0% where the company comments that some deliveries came through system integrators which has a lower gross margin. Opex came in at SEK136m, slightly above our forecast, but excluding an impairment of SEK6.8m, underlying opex was as expected. The company reported a solid order intake of SEK298m, which was in the high-end of our expected range of SEK250-300m. Invisio proposes a dividend of SEK1.3 per share (payout ratio of 33% vs policy of 25-50%) while we forecasted SEK1.9 (payout of 50%). The table below summarizes the Q4-results outcome compared to our forecasts.
Disclosures and disclaimers