Redeye states that net sales were slightly higher than expected, but OPEX was also higher. EBITDA was still in line. After a solid 2023, we believe 2024 will be a transitional year with continued net sales growth but higher OPEX. We estimate Gasporox’s order book to be SEK12.6m (35% of 2024e net sales). Redeye lowers its base case, but bull and bear cases remain unchanged.

Gasporox

* Lack of recurring revenue model and limited geographic market expansion, potentially hindering predictable growth and scalability.
* Unable to consistently generate returns on invested capital exceeding the cost of capital, suggesting possible challenges in maintaining a competitive moat.
* Narrow revenue base with limited diversification, increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations and customer concentration risks.
* Dependence on key individuals for success, posing potential operational risks if these individuals were to leave the company.
* Uncertainty regarding the longevity of competitive advantages and pricing power, which could impact long-term profitability and market position.

* Strong potential for meaningful reinvestment opportunities and ability to scale without expensive reinvestment, indicating efficient growth capabilities.
* Benefits from secular tailwinds supporting growth, with core business unlikely to be disrupted, suggesting long-term stability and resilience.
* Easily identifiable sustainable competitive advantages, potentially providing a strong market position and value capture ability.
* Proactively promotes environmental sustainability and contributes to the greater good, aligning with growing investor focus on ethical practices.
* Demonstrates positive employee satisfaction and customer-supplier relationships, fostering long-term sustainability and stakeholder value creation.

* Operating margin (EBIT) below 20%, suggesting potential competitive pressures or cost management challenges
* Return on Equity (ROE) below 20% for the last five years, indicating suboptimal utilization of shareholder capital
* Inconsistent earnings growth, failing to maintain 10%+ growth over five years or match historical averages
* Likely need to raise capital in the next 12 months, potentially leading to shareholder dilution
* Weak dividend performance, lacking consistent growth or coverage by cash flows, which may concern income-focused investors

* Strong gross profit margin exceeding 40%, indicating profitable product mix and pricing power
* Consistently increasing operating margin (EBIT) over three consecutive years, suggesting improved cost management and operational efficiency
* Healthy debt management with Net Debt less than two times Operating Cash Flow and five times Free Cash Flow
* Efficient inventory and accounts receivable management, both below 20% of sales and their 5-year averages
* High Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow conversion rates above 80% over the past five years, indicating strong cash generation abilities

* Potential dilution of shareholder value due to increasing share count without corresponding EPS growth.
* Weak commitment to sustainability reporting, which may indicate gaps in ESG practices or disclosure.
* Lack of sustainability-related performance incentives in executive compensation plans.
* Management owns less than a significant stake in the business, potentially misaligning interests with shareholders.
* Unclear status of minority shareholder treatment, raising potential governance concerns.

* Strong founder mentality with a CEO who inspires long-term vision, challenges conventions, and possesses deep industry knowledge.
* Experienced management team with consistent delivery on promises and a history of value creation.
* Effective capital allocation, focusing on innovation and generating attractive returns on investments.
* Transparent and candid investor communication, emphasizing long-term business value and consistent messaging.
* Board leadership demonstrates strong governance with independent directors, gender diversity, and alignment with business strategy.

SEKm	2021	2022	2023	2024e	2025e
Net Sales	15.7	21.4	31.4	35.8	48.3
Sales Growth	26.4%	36.3%	46.5%	13.9%	35.0%
EBITDA	-2.7	-0.90	3.6	4.7	8.7
EBIT	-5.4	-4.2	-0.58	-0.69	2.5
EBIT Margin	-34.2%	-19.7%	-1.8%	-1.9%	5.2%
Net Income	-5.4	-4.4	0.09	-1.5	2.0
EV/Sales	7.4	4.7	4.3	3.3	2.4

Q4 2023 — Highs and lows

Order book and low risk for share issuance

Estimate changes and reduced base case

Key financials

Estimate vs outcome