Overall, Nanexa’s OPEX (when excluding depreciation) has come down, and it is clear from yesterday’s conference call that cost control remains a priority. This includes (as previously announced) the pausing of NEX-20 and NEX-18, broader savings across the organization (for example, consultants), and also effectivizations related to the use of Nanexa’s production facility: Mr Svanström mentions during the call that GMP status only is needed when the company is producing for clinical studies, and thus that there are savings to be done in between. Overall, the report mentions that the company has a cash runway through H1 2025, which is a relatively long runway compared to other Swedish peers.

 In other words, we like the company’s focused approach and believe it should give the company some time to deliver, hopefully, a “full-scale” deal related to the Novo Nordisk evaluation, its other partner projects or possibly related to NEX-22. In the report, the company mentions that it is currently answering some questions related to the application to start a phase I trial with NEX-22 and that the study start could potentially be pushed to Q2. However, that data will still be presented in H2 this year. We reiterate our stance that since a release profile of 28 days can be obtained, we judge that Nanexa has the potential to obtain a pharmacokinetic profile that meets the requirements, the TPP, and the therapeutic window in the clinical phase I trial. In other words, we think the trial will generate much useful information.

The company is also prioritizing its partnering projects, both the most public one with Novo Nordisk and others. We hope that Novo Nordisk, by the end of the year, has chosen to exercise its option and, together with Nanexa, enter into a licensing deal.  In November 2023, the company announced that it had entered into an evaluation agreement with a large global pharmaceutical company about a depot formulation of a monoclonal antibody, which we think is an exciting area where Nanexa’s platform demonstrates great flexibility. While timelines are uncertain, we think there is a lot of optionality in the company’s several evaluation agreements, as we expect that one or several will lead to sharp agreements in the end. During yesterday's call, Nanexa also mentioned that it has optimized its processes in recent years to ensure that there are sharp substances that are evaluated and, overall, to ensure that the evaluation process is not too long.

We did a more thorough review of our valuation in relation to the outcome of Nanexa's rights issue and largely reiterate our valuation, only making some model fine tuning related to FX and share price assumptions with a net zero effect. We further adjust our OPEX estimates somewhat to align with the company's guidance for cash runway, and expect costs to follow the NEX-22 trial to a higher extent. We note that the company has made some room to deliver, given the cash runway into mid-25, and think that it will be vital for the company to deliver some form of commercial validation during the year. We still include some value related to NEX-20 (and to some extent NEX-18) but have earlier pushed our expectations for the next clinical activities. We may further adjust these parameters during the year. We reiterate our base case of SEK3.3 per share for now.