Seamless Distribution Systems: Rebound in recurring revenues
Research Update
2024-05-07
07:20
Redeye revises its estimates following the Q1 2024 report, which came in above our expectations in terms of margins while sales were somewhat lower due to weaker performance in the SDD segment. We consider the rebound of recurring revenues, which increased by 11% sequentially, alongside the higher margins to be the highlight of the report.
Anton Hoof
Net sales amounted to SEK56m, 9% below our expectations, primarily due to lower revenues in SDD. The decline is also in line with management’s strategy of focusing more on its higher-margin business in SDS. In terms of profitability, margins held up impressively, and EBITDA margin increased from 27% in Q4 to 40% in Q1. EBITDA amounted to SEK22m, compared to our estimate of SEK17m, and EBIT landed at SEK10m compared to our estimate of SEK8m.
Although FX provided some boost to margins, the underlying margins remained strong due to solid cost control and revenue mix. With the acceleration of the decline in SDD sales in recent quarters, the positive impact of the revenue mix should be evident in the P&L throughout 2024, particularly in Q2 and Q3. Additionally, the company foresees the potential for further cost savings ahead, which should support margins in the coming quarters.
Following the report, we have made a downward sales revision due to reduced sales in SDD, lowering sales by 8% in 2024e and 8-7% in 2025e-2026e. However, we have also slightly increased our margin assumptions, primarily due to the lower underlying opex in the quarter and the expected continued positive revenue mix going forward. Although SDS delivered a solid quarter, the primary focus remains on cash flow and the maturity of existing bonds in May 2025. We leave our valuation unchanged and our base case stands at SEK16, and the fair value range is SEK6-27.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Net Sales | 245.4 | 264.7 | 234.1 | 248.9 | 260.4 |
Sales Growth | -14.8% | 7.9% | -11.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
EBITDA | 9.8 | 62.0 | 92.3 | 95.3 | 99.7 |
EBIT | -48.6 | 17.0 | 46.7 | 61.2 | 63.3 |
EBIT Margin | -19.8% | 6.4% | 20.0% | 24.6% | 24.3% |
Net Income | -75.4 | -16.0 | 10.8 | 29.0 | 31.4 |
EV/Sales | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
EV/EBITDA | 18.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
EV/EBIT | -3.8 | 19.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
SDS reported net sales amounted to SEK56m, below our expectations of SEK61m. Regarding the sales mix, New sales landed on SEK15.4m compared to our estimate of SEK16m, Recurring revenues amounted to SEK37.4m in line with our estimate of SEK37m, and Re-occurring revenues amounted to SEK2.9m, below our expectations of SEK8m.
Disclosures and disclaimers