Nitro Games: Another profitable quarter
Research Update
2024-04-30
07:25
Redeye provides an update following Nitro Games’ Q1 2024 report, which demonstrated a y/y top-line growth of 54% with positive net income. The company maintains solid cost control, and we expect continued growth throughout 2024.
Anton Hoof
Nitro Games reported net sales of EUR2.7m in the quarter, corresponding to a growth of 54% y/y, in line with our estimates of EUR2.6m. The growth was primarily driven by the B2B segment. In terms of profitability, EBITDA and EBIT landed at EUR0.6m and EUR0.2m, respectively, above our expectations of EUR-0.3m and EUR-0.1m. This deviation is mainly attributed to solid cost control. Operating cash flow was positive, and the company ended the quarter with a cash position of EUR3.3m.
Although the Q1 numbers were solid, the company had only a small contribution from the self-publishing segment, as Supersonic (the game’s publisher) has not yet started to invest in UA on a larger scale. Therefore, we anticipate a gradual improvement in this segment throughout the year, which will support growth, margins, and cash flow. As Supersonic increases its investments in user acquisition, Nitro Games will grow alongside the game due to its revenue share contract.
We leave our estimates roughly unchanged following the Q1 report. We still anticipate the B2B business to constitute the majority of sales in the coming quarters as we await Supersonic to begin scaling up user acquisition for Autogun Heroes. Our valuation remains unchanged, and we continue to see a healthy upside to our base case. Our base case stands at SEK9, with the fair value range being SEK4-22.
EURm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Net Sales | 7.2 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 14.1 | 15.6 |
Sales Growth | 175% | 22.0% | 27.5% | 25.2% | 10.2% |
EBITDA | -2.6 | -1.7 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
EBIT | -3.4 | -3.0 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 0.94 |
EBIT Margin | -46.7% | -34.2% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
Net Income | -3.4 | -3.3 | -0.18 | 0.29 | 0.59 |
EV/Sales | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
EV/EBITDA | -7.2 | -4.3 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
EV/EBIT | -5.5 | -2.4 | - | 14.3 | 8.1 |
• Net sales amounted to EUR2.7m (1.7), growing 54% y/y and in line with our estimates of EUR2.6m. In terms of revenue split, EUR2.4m came from the service business while EUR0.26m came from self-publishing.
• Total OPEX amounted to EUR-2.5m, lower than our estimates of EUR-2.7m.
• EBITDA amounted to EUR0.6m (-0.2). This was higher than our expectations of EUR0.3m. The deviation is primarily due to lower opex.
• EBIT amounted to EUR0.2m (-0.5).
• Operating cash flow amounted to EUR0.065m (-0.1) and investment in intangible/tangible assets was EUR-0.6m (-0.27).
• Cash and cash equivalents for the ending period were EUR3.3m.
Disclosures and disclaimers