Annexin’s Q1 report was in line with expectations and offered few surprises, as the critical news flow since our Q4 update in February mainly was the announcement of the rights issue. Operating expenses amounted to SEK-12.5m, which aligned with our expectations. The cash position amounted to SEK7.8m, i.e., excluding the outstanding loan facility of SEK15m. We pencil in the ongoing rights issue guaranteed to 90%+ and also assume a small capital injection in late 2024/early 2025, to have a runway for 12 months included in our model, which likely could be a directed issue.

A few weeks ago, the company announced a rights issue of up to SEK45m before issue costs. The rights issue is guaranteed to 90.6% through subscription commitments from existing shareholders, including management and board (66.1%), and guarantees (24.5%). We include the rights issue in our valuation.

The company reiterates its stance that it expects the ongoing phase II study to be finalized by mid-2024 and has previously stated it will finalize the study report and detailed analyses by Q3. We will conduct a more thorough review of ANXV's prospects in RVO following the top-line readout later this year, which we see as a significant catalyst for the share, and for now reiterate our base case of SEK1.2 per share.