Heliospectra reported a 2% growth rate y/y, resulting in net sales of SEK7.2m, below our expectations of SEK8.4m, resulting in a -15 % deviation. OPEX amounted to SEK9.4m, flat y/y and above our SEK7.8m estimate. Due to a slightly lower topline and higher OPEX than forecasted, the operating loss (EBIT) was higher than expected at SEK6.6 vs our -SEK4m estimate. Overall, a slightly weaker performance than our forecast.

The highlight of the report was the exceptionally strong order intake at SEK27m (almost the same amount as the total order intake during 2023), c70% above our forecast of SEK16m. A substantial contributing factor to the increased order intake is a positive trend with larger orders from the Canadian market. During the quarter, Heliospectra announced two larger orders from Canadian customers, totalling SEK15.5m. The delivery of these orders is spread out through H2 2024 and 2025. We have already factored in a strong H2 2024, and the strong order intake in Q1 2024 reinforces confidence in our estimates. For 2024e, we factor in a 65% y/y sales growth, equal to SEK58m. Additionally, we believe the strong order intake enhances the prospects for breakthrough orders from the crucial European market.

On the back of the Q4 2023 report, we have made minimal adjustments to our estimates, primarily impacting 2024e by increasing our sales estimates by 2% and our OPEX estimates by c13%. Our adjustments leave our fair value range intact at SEK0.4-SEK3.6 per share with a Base case of SEK1.4. Heliospectra is currently trading at an EV/Sales multiple of 1x based on 2024e and EV/EBITDA 7.4x on 2025e, and we highlight a considerable upside potential in the share price.